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Josh Allen

QB · BUF · Week 15

Demo data — Week 15, 2025 season. This is a real backtest (not fabricated numbers), shown because it's the off-season and there's no live week to display. Live data resumes once the season starts.
DFS Projection 21.88
Sportsbook Projection 23.55
Blended 22.71
23.922.420.8Jul 27Jul 28Jul 29Jul 30Jul 31
Trend data starts updating about a week before kickoff, once lines are posted for this week's games. Check back closer to game time.
23.021.620.1Jul 27Jul 28Jul 29Jul 30Jul 31
Trend data starts updating about a week before kickoff, once lines are posted for this week's games. Check back closer to game time.
24.823.221.6Jul 27Jul 28Jul 29Jul 30Jul 31
Trend data starts updating about a week before kickoff, once lines are posted for this week's games. Check back closer to game time.
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19% chance of topping 305.1 yds for Passing Yards (30% above the market's projected 234.7 yds), worth about +2.8 more fantasy points if it happens. Boom potential is context, not part of the blended score.

DFS Projections

SourceProjected Points
PrizePicks21.50
Underdog22.65
Betr Picks21.50

Average of the sources above = 21.88, feeding into the blend as the "DFS Projection" number.

Sportsbook Markets

Passing TDs Exact count · 1.65 TD × 4 pts/TD = 6.59 pts

Threshold Chance of Going Over ⓘ Books Quoting It
0.5 85.3% 7
1.5 50.0% 15
2.5 21.6% 7
3.5 7.9% 6

Rush/Receiving TDs Exact count · 0.75 TD × 6 pts/TD = 4.5 pts

Threshold Chance of Going Over ⓘ Books Quoting It
0.5 54.6% 9
1.5 16.6% 8
2.5 3.7% 8

Passing Yards Estimated from odds · 234.66 yds × 0.04 pts/yds = 9.39 pts

Threshold Chance of Going Over ⓘ Books Quoting It
149.5 92.7% 4
159.5 88.2% 1
169.5 84.2% 1
174.5 83.4% 3
179.5 79.2% 1
189.5 73.9% 1
199.5 70.3% 6
206.5 63.2% 1
216.5 57.5% 1
222.5 52.8% 1
229.5 51.5% 2
236.5 47.2% 1
246.5 42.5% 1
256.5 38.2% 1
266.5 33.9% 1
274.5 26.0% 3
279.5 26.0% 2
286.5 26.3% 1
296.5 22.7% 1
306.5 19.1% 1
316.5 16.7% 1
324.5 11.3% 2
329.5 9.0% 2
336.5 11.8% 1
346.5 9.5% 1
356.5 8.0% 1
366.5 6.5% 1
379.5 2.9% 1

Rushing Yards Estimated from odds · 46.42 yds × 0.1 pts/yds = 4.64 pts

Threshold Chance of Going Over ⓘ Books Quoting It
9.5 94.0% 2
14.5 91.1% 3
19.5 83.5% 5
24.5 75.7% 4
29.5 66.6% 5
35.5 57.5% 1
47.5 43.3% 1
57.5 33.3% 1
67.5 23.8% 1
74.5 15.4% 1
79.5 11.9% 3
87.5 10.8% 1
97.5 6.7% 1
107.5 3.9% 1
117.5 2.1% 1
129.5 2.5% 1

Interceptions Exact count · 0.78 INT × -2 pts/INT = -1.56 pts

Threshold Chance of Going Over ⓘ Books Quoting It
0.5 51.6% 8
1.5 19.7% 1
2.5 5.5% 1
3.5 1.4% 1