About / Methodology

How the blended score is built, and why it exists

The problem with trusting one source

DFS pick'em sites like Underdog and PrizePicks publish a projected fantasy-point total for every player, every week. Sportsbooks publish betting lines (passing/rushing/receiving yardage props, anytime-touchdown odds, game totals) that imply their own view of how a player will perform. Both are independently pretty good at this. They also don't always agree.

When two differently-built systems (one a projections desk, one a real market where people bet real money) land on similar numbers, that agreement is a stronger signal than either alone. When they disagree, that disagreement is informative too: it usually means real uncertainty (a banged-up offensive line, a tough matchup one side is pricing in that the other missed) rather than one side being simply wrong. This site blends the two into a single expected-points number, and keeps a third, independent lens (expert consensus rankings) visible alongside it rather than folded in.

Three inputs

DFS Projections

Underdog, PrizePicks, and Betr Picks projections, already scored in fantasy points and averaged together.

Sportsbook Lines

Real player-prop lines and odds from US sportsbooks (via The Odds API), converted into an expected fantasy-point total using the market's own implied probabilities.

Expert Rankings

FantasyPros' consensus of 100+ analysts, shown as a plain-language perspective, never averaged into the number itself.

How three inputs become one number

1

DFS Projection

Average the projected points across every DFS source that's posted a number for that player this week.

2

Sportsbook Projection

Convert each betting market into points, using your league's scoring rate (half-PPR by default: 0.04 pts/passing yard, 0.1 pts/rushing or receiving yard, 0.5 pts/reception). A yardage or reception line becomes an expected-value estimate from the market's own quoted probabilities at every threshold a book offers, not just the single headline number. Touchdown odds are converted from betting odds into an implied probability and multiplied by the points a touchdown is worth. Game total and spread are shown for context (blowout risk, game script) rather than folded directly into the estimate.

3

Blended score

Average the DFS Projection and Sportsbook Projection. If only one side has data for a player, that side is used on its own rather than showing nothing.

4

Expert Perspective

FantasyPros' consensus position rank is translated into a plain label ("Top 12 at position," "Flex-worthy," or "Bench") and shown next to the blended number, not mixed into it. Human analysts weigh things (scheme fit, coaching tendencies, locker-room news) that don't reduce cleanly to a number, so this stays a separate, qualitative check instead of quietly moving the math.

A real example

This week's highest blended score belongs to Josh Allen (QB · BUF). Here's how that number was built:

DFS Projection 21.88
Sportsbook Projection 23.55
Blended 22.71

From the Week 15, 2025 demo dataset: a real backtest, not a fabricated example. See the full per-market breakdown →

This is v1

The blend above is a straightforward, transparent starting point: a plain average, not a fitted model, deliberately simple so every number on this site can be traced back to a real market or a real projection you can click through and check. Refining the weighting between DFS and sportsbook sources using real results, and eventually rebuilding a start/sit call against real league rosters, are explicit next steps, not one-time decisions.